It looks like business as usual at Take-Two Interactive Software Inc. [TTWO], which on Tuesday announced it would report first-quarter earnings after the close of trading on March 11. Behind the scenes, though, the video game company continues to try holding off Electronic Arts Inc. [ERTS] or getting it to raise its $26 a share, or $1.9 billion acquisition, offer.
Take-Two has publicly said it won't talk with EA until after it releases its "Grand Theft Auto IV" video game on April 29. But we wouldn't be surprised if the companies do get together before then to see if there's some common ground on a more amicable takeout. Take-Two knows EA can increase its offer price into the $30 per share range and still have the deal be accretive. But it also knows that if EA pulls the offer, its shares will drop closer to the $17 level, where they were trading before EA's bid.
In a Monday research report, Kaufman Bros. LP analyst Todd Mitchell speculates that if a deal does get done it will be "quick and at a modest premium to $26," settling on a $28 share price as one that will "get it done." Mitchell writes that even though Take-Two can eventually become a $40 stock if future sales of its more popular video games are strong, the current offer "is arguably beyond the fair value for Take-Two at this stage of its recovery, its cash, and it likely represents a significant profit for most" shareholders.
The best scenario for Take-Two is if another bidder comes forward, something analysts see as unlikely. Take-Two shares were holding right around the $26 level early Tuesday, still suggesting investors expect a bump in the offer price. - David Shabelman
See March 4 press release from Take-Two
See Feb. 29 story from Tech Confidential
See Feb. 29 story from RealMoney
See March 3 post from Curse.com











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