We might sometimes refer to the decision-making process undertaken by venture capitalists as "mental calculus," but new startup YouNoodle Inc. is attempting to create a predictive engine that actually evaluates startups' potential for success mathematically.

Initial reactions to the idea have ranged from mildly skeptical to patently dismissive, but YouNoodle has the validation of at least two prominent investors. The youthful five-person startup has attracted early PayPal investors Peter Thiel (pictured at left) and Max Levchin as participants in a seed round of undisclosed size, which also includes Thiel's firm the Founders Fund. Another angel investor who prefers to remain anonymous is the lead investor, according to YouNoodle co-founder Bob Goodson.

YouNoodle's founding team is quite young -- its five employees average 23 years old -- but some already have moderately deep connections with the company's investors. Goodson was the first employee hired by Yelp.com, which Levchin backed; another co-founder, Kirill Makharinsky, worked for photo view site Slide.com, in which Thiel and Levchin both invested.

Those close connections may be the inspiration for the company as well. YouNoodle won't say how it works, but based on what its founders will disclose, it appears to have more to do with how closely connected a company's founders are than the strength of an entrepreneurial idea on its own. It's who you know, basically.

Cagey as he was about the product's details, Goodson said the company is primarily concerned with the composition of a startup's team and their positioning within a network of people who can help the company move forward. To that end, YouNoodle is collecting data about hundreds of startups and their backers, initially within university development programs. What's more, the product is designed to improve over time, as its network grows and more data can be harvested. Goodson acknowledged that such a database may have a value far beyond its decision-making engine, but for now YouNoodle is taking one step at a time.

Network theory probably isn't strong enough to predict the success of startups, but in a field defined by its risk level, where even a very good VC scores a highly worthwhile exit less than 10% of the time after rigorous due diligence and financial modeling, every little bit helps. YouNoodle may not be able to compete with VCs' instincts, but as an evaluation tool it ought to have some value to seed-stage and angel investors. - Paul Bonanos

See Feb. 18 story from The New York Times
See Feb. 18 post from TechCrunch