Get ready for the billion dollar clean technology IPO. Randy Komisar, a general partner at Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers, predicted last week that the exit market for renewable energy startups is coming "very quickly".

He said some of these companies "will easily get to billion dollar valuations very quickly with out profits." Kleiner Perkins has 12 clean technology portfolio companies and suggested ethanol startups will be the first to hit the IPO market.

Komisar contrasted the exit possibilities for what Kleiner Perkins refers to as green tech companies with Internet companies by noting that on the Internet, it's often a winner takes all dynamic. With clean technology, that's not the case since wind won't replace coal and nuclear won't replace water and on and on. "All will reduce our reliance on existing fuel sources," Komisar said. Thus, much of the risk is mitigated. He also indicated that risk is lessened in this sector because there is very clear data on the amount of energy being consumed as opposed to spurious Internet growth projections. On the other hand, he said, clean technology is global pointing to Japan and Germany as places where solar energy has taken root. This stands in contrast to the IT industry where investors haven't had to look far beyond Silicon Valley for high-quality deals.

I can see scenarios where clean energy companies can hit the public markets. But it remains less clear to me how an M&A market shapes up since the ideal acquirers are the ones whose core businesses will be most hurt if clean technology succeeds. Komisar agreed that Big Oil and clean technology's interests are not aligned. However, he said that the largest oil companies want to be in growth businesses and clean technology will grab an increasing piece of the energy business in the coming years, which will force Big Oil to buy.

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