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[Posted on June 26, 2006 - 8:09 PM]
Robert Donahue, managing principal at Quadrangle Group, raised a question during a panel I moderated this afternoon at The Deal's Convergence 2.0 conference worth considering. Is the digital communications landscape emerging into one where the winner takes all.

The query came during his response to my question about whether there is a limit to the amount of convergence that will occur over the coming years. He noted that media industries such as film and publishing are fragmented ones with no one company owning more than 50% market share. However, technology is a winner takes all market with Microsoft's ownership of the operating system and office suite and Google's huge search share as examples. He wondered whether this could happen to media as the it becomes even more affected by technology than it is today

The panel discuss was lively and considered topics ranging from whether the telecommunication companies can lure away cable customers with their impending IPTV services (they can, according to AT&T's Erich Bucholz) to what percent of advertising dollars will be spent on user-generated content in three years (very, very little according to Mindshare Interactive's John Montgomery).

Ezra Kucharz identified the protection of the company's intellectual property as a key challenge NBC Universal must meet in the coming years while Microsoft's Andy Moss noted that innovation within companies is vital since companies can't live alone on acquisitions. Chase Norlin, CEO of Pixsy, said that search companies will provide tremendous value to users of IPTV in the coming years as these viewers need a way to find the content they're looking for.

For more on Convergence 2.0, see:
Tech Confidential blog
Tech Effect blog

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