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Pointing to a web traffic report and drawing conclusions is a dangerous game. Paul Kedrosky includes a Quantcast traffic chart showing a decline in the number of visitors to the Zillow's web site over the past few months. Now, I'm no Zillow apologist. I've been skeptical of the online real estate information site since its launch almost two years ago. I never understood why it needed to raise the $87 million its taken from Benchmark Capital, Technology Crossover Ventures and others.
However, the idea that a declining traffic chart shows that Zillow's traffic is "falling off the rails" is unlikely. For one thing, Kedrosky bases his suggestion upon Quantcast data that is notoriously inaccurate for web sites that haven't included the company's tracking code on its site. For example, TechConfidential.com hasn't included the Quantcast tracking code on its site and the company underestimates the number of monthly uniques TechConfidential.com draws each month by a multiple of more than 25. Zillow has not included the Quantcast code on its site, which brings into question the data, which is listed below:
Compare that to data on Zillow and chief rival Trulia from Compete.com:
And data on the two companies from Alexa:
As you can see, data from competing sites would lead one to a different conclusion about Zillow's performance. While it's not the sort of growth investors would like to see, Zillow does appear to be developing nicely. New partnerships, features and advertisers are being rolled out quickly. I don't how this translates into revenue but it seems certain that the revenue obtained per user is rising steadily as more real estate agents use the site to reach potential buyers.
As for Quantcast, it's data on demographics and affinity sites is very useful. It's tracking of non-participating sites is less valuable. But, maybe that's the point. It undercounts sites that don't include its code on their sites as an incentive to participate. It's working here. Look for TechConfidential.com to become a Quantified Publishers in the coming weeks. - Joshua Jaffe
Hi Josh,
That is interesting analysis. Our data for sites that are not in the Quantified Program are just estimates based on our panel. We realize that all panels have their faults, and anytime you make adjustments to a panel you always miss large niche audiences.
Panel estimates are not the solution--that is why we built an open, participatory platform for and by publishers. I am also happy to answer any further questions.
Thanks,
Chris
chris@quantcast.com
Hi David,
Thanks for the time you spend to read all that posts and comments about Zillow. I was surprised to know that you do this.
So, I was nice to know that everything is OK with your company (I understand that everybody faces bad time now - so, I wish you good luck!)
The one thing I am noticing is that Trulia seems to be coming up higher on search engines lately then Zillow. Im not sure if it is an indication of increased popularity or just better Search Engine Optimization.
Hi Joshua, its David from Zillow,
Thanks for thinking this through. It takes less 2 minutes to do a sniff-test on the other free sites that guess traffic - it's time well spent if you value your credibility.